{
  "spec": "pointcast.college-football.coach-weather/v1",
  "title": "COACH WEATHER",
  "subtitle": "Preseason Pressure Map · Dispatch 000",
  "dek": "Rankings say where coaches stand. Weather says what can move them.",
  "publishedAt": "2026-07-29T16:10:00-07:00",
  "updatedAt": "2026-07-29T16:10:00-07:00",
  "asOf": "2026-07-29",
  "season": 2026,
  "dispatch": "000",
  "byline": "PointCast Coaches Desk",
  "canonical": "https://pointcast.xyz/25/magazine/coach-weather",
  "machineEdition": "https://pointcast.xyz/25/magazine/coach-weather.json",
  "block": "0545",
  "rankingBase": "https://pointcast.xyz/25/magazine/coaches-50",
  "socialImage": "https://pointcast.xyz/images/pointcast-coach-weather/social-card.png",
  "thesis": "The ranking is a position. Coach Weather is the pressure system around it: the room most likely to change, the evidence that would move it, and the receipt when it does.",
  "baseline": {
    "note": "No coach moves before the first game. Dispatch 000 records preseason pressure only; every movement field is zero so the season begins with an honest baseline.",
    "movementCount": 0,
    "currentAsOf": "2026-07-29",
    "firstMovementEligibleAfter": "Each coach has played a 2026 game."
  },
  "boundary": "Coach Weather is an unofficial, timestamped editorial lens—not a hot-seat report, rumor market, employment evaluation, prediction model, injury report, audited financial analysis, or official publication of any coach, school, conference, broadcaster, award, or governing body.",
  "matcherBoundary": "Build Your Program is a local editorial toy. Allocations stay in the browser, the result is not a personality test or recommendation, and no school or coach endorses the match.",
  "cadence": [
    {
      "day": "MON",
      "time": "08:30 PT",
      "title": "The Front Map",
      "note": "Five heating, five clearing, and the exact room carrying the pressure."
    },
    {
      "day": "WED",
      "time": "12:14 PT",
      "title": "Room of the Week",
      "note": "One coach-program system inspected beyond the record and the press conference."
    },
    {
      "day": "FRI",
      "time": "15:30 PT",
      "title": "Saturday Pressure",
      "note": "The decisions, matchups, substitutions, and public bargains worth watching."
    },
    {
      "day": "SUN",
      "time": "21:08 PT",
      "title": "Movement Report",
      "note": "What actually changed, what did not, and the receipt attached to every move."
    }
  ],
  "bands": [
    {
      "id": "heating",
      "label": "Five heating rooms",
      "note": "Expectation, inheritance, or a new institutional scale is concentrating pressure before kickoff.",
      "color": "#ff6843",
      "fronts": [
        {
          "order": 1,
          "band": "heating",
          "pressure": 96,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "aura",
          "headline": "New city. Same voltage. Much larger weather.",
          "forecast": "LSU supplies a local player ecology, Saturday-night theater, and an expectation cycle that can accelerate faster than any scheme.",
          "trigger": "The first month asks whether motion can produce institutional calm.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 9,
            "name": "Lane Kiffin",
            "school": "LSU",
            "conference": "SEC",
            "region": "Baton Rouge / Gulf South",
            "signal": "The volatile merger"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 2,
          "band": "heating",
          "pressure": 95,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "program",
          "headline": "The sport’s cleanest portability test.",
          "forecast": "Michigan did not hire a mood. It hired a two-decade operating system and placed it inside a different recruiting map, staff market, and public scale.",
          "trigger": "Watch whether the inherited language becomes ordinary behavior before the first rivalry test.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 10,
            "name": "Kyle Whittingham",
            "school": "Michigan",
            "conference": "Big Ten",
            "region": "Ann Arbor / Great Lakes",
            "signal": "The master changes rooms"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 3,
          "band": "heating",
          "pressure": 92,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "fans",
          "headline": "Inheritance is becoming authorship.",
          "forecast": "The Alabama question is no longer whether DeBoer can follow the previous room. It is which parts of the room are recognizably his.",
          "trigger": "The temperature moves when adaptation starts to feel like a tradition instead of an exception.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 7,
            "name": "Kalen DeBoer",
            "school": "Alabama",
            "conference": "SEC",
            "region": "Tuscaloosa / national pipeline",
            "signal": "The impossible inheritance"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 4,
          "band": "heating",
          "pressure": 91,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "capital",
          "headline": "Florida offers fuel and almost no warm-up lap.",
          "forecast": "The roster geography, facilities, league position, and public impatience all arrive at once. Urgency is useful until it begins designing the work.",
          "trigger": "The opening depth-chart decisions reveal whether capital is being converted or merely activated.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 36,
            "name": "Jon Sumrall",
            "school": "Florida",
            "conference": "SEC",
            "region": "Gainesville / Florida",
            "signal": "The pressure launch"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 5,
          "band": "heating",
          "pressure": 90,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "program",
          "headline": "The beautiful part is proven. The whole is on trial.",
          "forecast": "USC still possesses quarterback imagination, Los Angeles reach, and national attention. The 2026 weather sits over resistance, physical trust, and repeatability.",
          "trigger": "The front clears when the least glamorous unit becomes dependable.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 21,
            "name": "Lincoln Riley",
            "school": "USC",
            "conference": "Big Ten",
            "region": "Los Angeles / national market",
            "signal": "The beautiful risk"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "clearing",
      "label": "Five clearing rooms",
      "note": "The coach, players, place, and public story currently agree about what the work is.",
      "color": "#b9ff45",
      "fronts": [
        {
          "order": 6,
          "band": "clearing",
          "pressure": 64,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "program",
          "headline": "Clarity is its own kind of weather.",
          "forecast": "Indiana begins from proof rather than aspiration. The risk is not confusion; it is the new weight of being studied, copied, and expected.",
          "trigger": "The room stays clear if success changes the attention without changing the standards.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 1,
            "name": "Curt Cignetti",
            "school": "Indiana",
            "conference": "Big Ten",
            "region": "Bloomington / Rust Belt edge",
            "signal": "The new proof"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 7,
          "band": "clearing",
          "pressure": 62,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "players",
          "headline": "Person, place, and roster are telling one story.",
          "forecast": "Notre Dame enters with unusually clean alignment among recruiting reach, player trust, public meaning, and the coach’s way of carrying the job.",
          "trigger": "The remaining cloud is exact: can the complete room produce the final two wins?",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 4,
            "name": "Marcus Freeman",
            "school": "Notre Dame",
            "conference": "Independent",
            "region": "South Bend / national parish",
            "signal": "The modern steward"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 8,
          "band": "clearing",
          "pressure": 65,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "capital",
          "headline": "The laboratory has become a football identity.",
          "forecast": "Oregon’s resources no longer read as decoration. They appear in competition, roster depth, recruiting speed, and the program’s appetite for iteration.",
          "trigger": "The forecast changes when an opponent makes the lab play slow.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 5,
            "name": "Dan Lanning",
            "school": "Oregon",
            "conference": "Big Ten",
            "region": "Eugene / Pacific Northwest",
            "signal": "The acceleration lab"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 9,
          "band": "clearing",
          "pressure": 68,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "capital",
          "headline": "Restraint has become the ambitious idea.",
          "forecast": "Texas A&M has never lacked inputs. Elko’s early work is to make diagnosis, sequencing, and conversion feel more valuable than another acquisition headline.",
          "trigger": "The first close game audits whether the room trusts its adult tempo.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 12,
            "name": "Mike Elko",
            "school": "Texas A&M",
            "conference": "SEC",
            "region": "College Station / Texas",
            "signal": "The adult in the room"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 10,
          "band": "clearing",
          "pressure": 60,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "region",
          "headline": "Belonging remains a competitive system.",
          "forecast": "BYU’s place, faith, diaspora, emotional register, and player profile reinforce one another more naturally than most expensive program plans.",
          "trigger": "The sky tightens only when weekly talent math overwhelms the belonging engine.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 13,
            "name": "Kalani Sitake",
            "school": "BYU",
            "conference": "Big 12",
            "region": "Provo / Mountain West",
            "signal": "The belonging engine"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "storm-cell",
      "label": "Two storm cells",
      "note": "Volatility, not condemnation: new rooms where multiple conditions can change at once.",
      "color": "#7ca8ff",
      "fronts": [
        {
          "order": 11,
          "band": "storm-cell",
          "pressure": 97,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "fans",
          "headline": "A builder enters a room that already seats the future.",
          "forecast": "Penn State supplies scale, margin, facilities, and a public that can turn patience into pressure between possessions. Campbell’s intimacy now has 107,000 witnesses.",
          "trigger": "Watch whether developmental patience can operate at championship speed without becoming theater.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 19,
            "name": "Matt Campbell",
            "school": "Penn State",
            "conference": "Big Ten",
            "region": "State College / interior Pennsylvania",
            "signal": "The scale translation"
          }
        },
        {
          "order": 12,
          "band": "storm-cell",
          "pressure": 96,
          "movement": 0,
          "exactRoom": "region",
          "headline": "A reboot specialist meets a region asking to recognize itself.",
          "forecast": "Virginia Tech needs more than recruiting organization. It needs the state, the stadium, alumni energy, and football language to reconnect.",
          "trigger": "The storm either organizes around regional belonging or collapses into another capital slogan.",
          "coach": {
            "rank": 20,
            "name": "James Franklin",
            "school": "Virginia Tech",
            "conference": "ACC",
            "region": "Blacksburg / Mid-Atlantic",
            "signal": "The reboot specialist"
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "roomOfTheWeek": {
    "coach": "Kyle Whittingham",
    "school": "Michigan",
    "exactRoom": "program",
    "question": "Can a two-decade operating system become ordinary behavior inside a different institution before the first rivalry test?",
    "sourceRanking": "https://pointcast.xyz/25/magazine/coaches-50#coach-10"
  },
  "matcher": {
    "title": "Build Your Program",
    "unit": "100 editorial points",
    "axes": [
      {
        "id": "program",
        "label": "Program",
        "weight": 20,
        "note": "The durable football system: staff, standards, decision quality, and proof over time."
      },
      {
        "id": "capital",
        "label": "Capital",
        "weight": 15,
        "note": "Not raw wealth. The ability to turn roster, staff, travel, and institutional resources into advantage."
      },
      {
        "id": "players",
        "label": "Players",
        "weight": 20,
        "note": "Recruiting, development, retention, role clarity, and the trust that survives a depth chart."
      },
      {
        "id": "region",
        "label": "Region",
        "weight": 10,
        "note": "Fit with place, recruiting roads, local identity, weather, and the program’s natural constituency."
      },
      {
        "id": "fans",
        "label": "Fans",
        "weight": 10,
        "note": "Belief, expectation, access, temperature, and whether the coach can carry the public story."
      },
      {
        "id": "facilities",
        "label": "Facilities",
        "weight": 10,
        "note": "How intelligently the physical plant supports daily work. Buildings are an amplifier, not a coach."
      },
      {
        "id": "aura",
        "label": "Aura",
        "weight": 15,
        "note": "The difficult residue: attention, inevitability, fear, calm, theater, and the feeling before proof arrives."
      }
    ],
    "defaultBuild": {
      "program": 20,
      "capital": 15,
      "players": 20,
      "region": 10,
      "fans": 10,
      "facilities": 10,
      "aura": 15
    },
    "candidates": [
      {
        "rank": 1,
        "coach": "Curt Cignetti",
        "school": "Indiana",
        "conference": "Big Ten",
        "region": "Bloomington / Rust Belt edge",
        "signal": "The new proof",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 2,
        "coach": "Kirby Smart",
        "school": "Georgia",
        "conference": "SEC",
        "region": "Athens / Georgia pipeline",
        "signal": "The standing empire",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 3,
        "coach": "Ryan Day",
        "school": "Ohio State",
        "conference": "Big Ten",
        "region": "Columbus / national scale",
        "signal": "The proof after proof",
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        "rank": 4,
        "coach": "Marcus Freeman",
        "school": "Notre Dame",
        "conference": "Independent",
        "region": "South Bend / national parish",
        "signal": "The modern steward",
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      {
        "rank": 5,
        "coach": "Dan Lanning",
        "school": "Oregon",
        "conference": "Big Ten",
        "region": "Eugene / Pacific Northwest",
        "signal": "The acceleration lab",
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        "rank": 6,
        "coach": "Mario Cristobal",
        "school": "Miami",
        "conference": "ACC",
        "region": "Miami / South Florida",
        "signal": "The regional reclamation",
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        "rank": 7,
        "coach": "Kalen DeBoer",
        "school": "Alabama",
        "conference": "SEC",
        "region": "Tuscaloosa / national pipeline",
        "signal": "The impossible inheritance",
        "shape": {
          "program": 12.8,
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      {
        "rank": 8,
        "coach": "Steve Sarkisian",
        "school": "Texas",
        "conference": "SEC",
        "region": "Austin / Texas triangle",
        "signal": "The open throttle",
        "shape": {
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        "rank": 9,
        "coach": "Lane Kiffin",
        "school": "LSU",
        "conference": "SEC",
        "region": "Baton Rouge / Gulf South",
        "signal": "The volatile merger",
        "shape": {
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      {
        "rank": 10,
        "coach": "Kyle Whittingham",
        "school": "Michigan",
        "conference": "Big Ten",
        "region": "Ann Arbor / Great Lakes",
        "signal": "The master changes rooms",
        "shape": {
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        "rank": 11,
        "coach": "Dabo Swinney",
        "school": "Clemson",
        "conference": "ACC",
        "region": "Upstate South Carolina",
        "signal": "The sovereign system",
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        "rank": 12,
        "coach": "Mike Elko",
        "school": "Texas A&M",
        "conference": "SEC",
        "region": "College Station / Texas",
        "signal": "The adult in the room",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 13,
        "coach": "Kalani Sitake",
        "school": "BYU",
        "conference": "Big 12",
        "region": "Provo / Mountain West",
        "signal": "The belonging engine",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 14,
        "coach": "Rhett Lashlee",
        "school": "SMU",
        "conference": "ACC",
        "region": "Dallas / private capital",
        "signal": "The city accelerator",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 15,
        "coach": "Joey McGuire",
        "school": "Texas Tech",
        "conference": "Big 12",
        "region": "Lubbock / West Texas",
        "signal": "The network state",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 16,
        "coach": "Willie Fritz",
        "school": "Houston",
        "conference": "Big 12",
        "region": "Houston / Gulf metropolis",
        "signal": "The lifetime builder",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 17,
        "coach": "Josh Heupel",
        "school": "Tennessee",
        "conference": "SEC",
        "region": "Knoxville / Tennessee Valley",
        "signal": "The tempo revival",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 18,
        "coach": "Jeff Brohm",
        "school": "Louisville",
        "conference": "ACC",
        "region": "Louisville / Ohio Valley",
        "signal": "The hometown engineer",
        "shape": {
          "program": 14.953271028037381,
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      },
      {
        "rank": 19,
        "coach": "Matt Campbell",
        "school": "Penn State",
        "conference": "Big Ten",
        "region": "State College / interior Pennsylvania",
        "signal": "The scale translation",
        "shape": {
          "program": 14.035087719298245,
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      },
      {
        "rank": 20,
        "coach": "James Franklin",
        "school": "Virginia Tech",
        "conference": "ACC",
        "region": "Blacksburg / Mid-Atlantic",
        "signal": "The reboot specialist",
        "shape": {
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      },
      {
        "rank": 21,
        "coach": "Lincoln Riley",
        "school": "USC",
        "conference": "Big Ten",
        "region": "Los Angeles / national market",
        "signal": "The beautiful risk",
        "shape": {
          "program": 9.473684210526317,
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